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Coincident Peak Prediction Using a Feed-Forward Neural Network

Abstract: 

A significant portion of a business' annual electrical payments can be made up of coincident peak charges: a transmission surcharge for power consumed when the entire system is at peak demand. This charge occurs only a few times annually, but with per-MW prices orders of magnitudes higher than non-peak times. A business is incentivized to reduce its power consumption, but accurately predicting the timing of peak demand charges is nontrivial. In this paper we present a decision framework based on predicting the day-ahead likelihood of peak demand charges. We train a feed-forward neural network to estimate the probability of system demand peaks and show it outperforms conventional forecasting methods using historical load. Using ERCOT demand and weather data from 2010-2017, we show the effectiveness of our framework.

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Paper Details

Authors:
Daniel Kirschen, Baosen Zhang
Submitted On:
28 November 2018 - 2:08pm
Short Link:
Type:
Presentation Slides
Event:
Presenter's Name:
Chase Dowling
Paper Code:
1298
Document Year:
2018
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[1] Daniel Kirschen, Baosen Zhang, "Coincident Peak Prediction Using a Feed-Forward Neural Network", IEEE SigPort, 2018. [Online]. Available: http://sigport.org/3773. Accessed: Apr. 25, 2019.
@article{3773-18,
url = {http://sigport.org/3773},
author = {Daniel Kirschen; Baosen Zhang },
publisher = {IEEE SigPort},
title = {Coincident Peak Prediction Using a Feed-Forward Neural Network},
year = {2018} }
TY - EJOUR
T1 - Coincident Peak Prediction Using a Feed-Forward Neural Network
AU - Daniel Kirschen; Baosen Zhang
PY - 2018
PB - IEEE SigPort
UR - http://sigport.org/3773
ER -
Daniel Kirschen, Baosen Zhang. (2018). Coincident Peak Prediction Using a Feed-Forward Neural Network. IEEE SigPort. http://sigport.org/3773
Daniel Kirschen, Baosen Zhang, 2018. Coincident Peak Prediction Using a Feed-Forward Neural Network. Available at: http://sigport.org/3773.
Daniel Kirschen, Baosen Zhang. (2018). "Coincident Peak Prediction Using a Feed-Forward Neural Network." Web.
1. Daniel Kirschen, Baosen Zhang. Coincident Peak Prediction Using a Feed-Forward Neural Network [Internet]. IEEE SigPort; 2018. Available from : http://sigport.org/3773