Modern video codec uses arithmetic coding for entropy coding. The arithmetic coding asymptotically achieves the entropy bound provided the true probability distribution. Hence the compression efficiency heavily relies on the ability to capture the time-variant probability model in video signals. Variants of first-order linear probability model update schemes have been used in recent generation video codecs. Built on top of those, a multimodal estimation scheme that forms a higher order probability model update has been proposed in this work. We experimentally demonstrate its coding efficiency.